Thursday, March 28, 2013

Corn 3/28/13 Planting Intentions Report

Good Afternoon all,
Not sure if any of these get read, but as I sit here alone after crushing that corn market, I guess this is a nice outlet...

Nailed this one this year, better than last year... I probably shoulda held my option, but as we have a 3 day weekend ... Plus I really needed a win after being chewed up and spit out early this year with Wheat... Fuckin' Wheat....ARghhh... , where was I ... oh yea,  Hit a double on Corn... Looking back, Wish I woulda put more on it... but can't risk the entire acct on a trade that could have gone either way...
Now, after the affects of that trade have worn off, I look at the SPY, of which I now own 18 April 12th 154 Put Options with a DCA of $72.00 Currently trading at $66.00, which puts me down about $100.00 on the trade or 8%, Not bad considering we are at 156.38 and that's my draw down.  I did see -$225 at one point... I am considering holding over the weekend, but know that they will get slaughtered by time erosion... I am betting on an EOD/EOM/EOQ sell off also known as profit taking.  At 1:17 only time will tell...
May The Force Be With You...

Wednesday, March 27, 2013

3/27/13 SPY & CORN EOD update

Afternoon all,
As of 4:00, I am up $21.00 on the SPY Puts and my additional order for 2 at $72 did Not get filled... In addition, I checked the Corn trade and as of the close at 3:00 I am up $43.00...

I failed to mention the results of my single put option buy at yesterdays close.  I purchased it for $76.00 and at the open it was worth $123.00  Many folks told me to exit for a nice 50% profit, but did I listen... No, Instead I proceeded to buy at my target levels.  1st at 155.60, then again at 155.80, then again at 156.05 and finally tried at 155.20 but missed it...

I am now holding 8 puts for a DCA of $82.00, as of 4:11, last trade was $85, B/A 79/81,  which would imply an $11.00 loss...  Finally, like my entry for this short, just think I might be early on this as well, but I am considering end of the qtr profit taking...Cypress... and all in all the BS of this rally...

RE: Corn...
don't know what else to say except I hope I bought the right month and in the right direction... otherwise, I am gonna get my ass handed to me.. 1 naked put going into exports and planting intentions... yikes...
Good Luck All...

SPY 3/27

Afternoon all,
its 3:15 as I write, and I an holding 8 154 April 12 Puts options.  In addition, I just purchased 1 July 690 Put option for 22.2 cents...

I am concerned that I have entered the corn market too early to, but I got in at 716 4/8 in the last minute before it dumped to 715... started the bidding at 220, 221, 222 hit...  I am very nervous about this trade as I don't usually short the report, at least I didn't last year or the year before... I could be screwing up... However, I believe that we will see huge planting and large yields and to bring corn back to normal levels...Also think the crops are good down south.  Shit, this could be a guess for I know...

Short corn at 716 this Day March 27th. (Entry $1,110.00)

Short SPY at 156.00 this Day March 27th.  (Average entry of $82.00)

May The Force Be With Me !!!!

Monday, March 25, 2013

SPY 3/25/13

Good Monday All,
Don't know about you, but been waiting for Monday since Friday... Bought (3) Put options on Friday for $88.00, at 155.90, they last traded for $48.00 HOLY SHIT !!! that's -44% or down $135.00... My Risk was 3 x $88 or $264.00..
This was an impulse buy at the close, and I should not have done it... So to start of the week of trading, I begin down $135.00, Stupid move ....
I just accepted losses of $145.00 ... Wow, was looking for 10% and ended up giving up 55%... Decided not to trade this week as we have Easter coming up and I am just not on my game.   I can not remember the last time I had a winning trade. 
Need to step back and not revenge trade... get my head clear, the market will be there tomorrow...
May the Force Be with You..

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

SPY 3/20/13


Good Afternoon All,
Spent the day yesterday Over leveraged with (15) April 5th 154 PUT options.  Ugh... In the morning, I was down $685.00 after the open, I was up $950... Did I take it???  NO, of course not, It wasn't $1,000 yet... an hour later it was at $540, then $440... that a pop that pushed me to Break Even (B/E).. I had purchased my options for $139.00 each and sold 13 out of 15 for $140.00. 
I watched a $900 gain go to shit !!!!.. It hit my levels, I should have exited with a profit... I hesitated and lost the gains. 
I do have to say that I was Happy, to get back to even from being down nearly 40% on the trade.  Speaking of range and volatility, I awoke this morning to my 2 remaining were down $50 each !! UGH !!!  that was a 35% hit... I waited after the open and made a bad purchase of another April 5th, 154 Put for $98.00 then after Ben's Speak made another bad purchase for $88.00...

So Currently, I am holding 4 with a Dollar Cost Average (DCA) of $115.00 and as of 4;15 Last price was 105.00 down $10 each for $-40.00 ... My Delta is 36, so I will need 30pts ... so 155.10 maybe is my B/E... There is still a lot of room in my channel so some downward action will not break the bull run.  I am down 8% at the close, my max loss is my premium of $461.00 ... I got the rest of this week to try to earn $200, as the price goes down my delta will increase and as it goes up, the delta will decrease... Plus as it not every penny in this acct, I am comfortable risking $250, which would put the SPY at somewhere near 156.50 or near the Most Recent High if not the All Time High... Not a Terrible place to be... Wish I woulda not held those 2 from yesterday...otherwise, this trade would be in the green...
May The Force Be With You...

Friday, March 1, 2013

SPY trade EOD

3/1/13 - Welp, watched a great trade go to shit... early in the morning, greed got the better of me and I was left wanting more... shoulda exited this morning for a nice profit, instead, let it ride for an end result of a $62.00 gain.  Hay a profit is a profit... I'll take it, but I will kick myself in the ass for not taking the morning... before the bell, I grabbed (3) 150 April 5, Put options for $1.90 at 152.11... Think Monday is gonna be a blood bath and I don't wanna miss the fun...
Until Monday...

Friday - SPY - 3/1/13

3/1/13 - Still holding (8) from yesterday and the SPY is at 151.04 at 9:12 EST... saw it post 150.80 and was super excited, but at 151.09 with a closing price yesterday at 151.61... Still pretty Happy... Squawk mentions more about the ATH in the Dow, than any mention of the Sequester...

I am gonna hold out for sub 151 # and look to take profits.  I would much rather go into the weekend with cash in hand, than hypothetical profits that can take a turn Monday morning.  Right now I can exit to earn a few bucks and balance out yesterdays fuck up...

Stocktwits is bearish and hearing 148 being thrown around, which makes me want to scale out of this position in an attempt to let the profits run...

As of this update, 9:17, no options prices are posted, looks like we will see the discovery process at its best... should be interesting...

In summary, there is no telling when I am gonna get out, but out I will be before the weekend...

Good Luck today and May the Force Be With You...