Friday, May 11, 2012

May 11th... Friday !!!!

11:28 - CN12 - Currently trading at 589 2/8, touched on 592 4/8, but didn't hold... USDA predicted a yield of 166 on top of HUGE planting with the anticipation of excess corn... anything along the way will hurt this, but we could have a perfect growing season, which would crush the price of corn as well as the farmers who put it in the ground... Got 43 days till expiration so on 6/22/12, corn needs to settle above 6.20 for me to be making money should I choose to hold the option that long... Currently need 595 or better for break even and anything above 600, obviously put me In The Money as well as up on profit... Bid 17.6, Ask 18.2, Last 17.7... Paid 19.0...

Thursday, May 10, 2012

May 10th... Big Day

11:56 - USDA released #'s this morning...looks to be an exciting day... Opened down and I jumped in a got a 600 July Call option for 19 cents or $950.00 before fees...Got in at 10:50:32... To be completely honest, I was looking to Buy a Bean Call at the open, but had 2 order windows open and clicked buy on a corn call, I tried to cancel but am still not famaliar with the platform... I have checked the event log and it shows all kinds of action, 2 PendingSendCancel, 3 working, 1 FILL... So, in revising my outlook, now that I have a call, I actually think this is a pretty good position... 595 is my Break Even Point ... Do not have a plan for this trade and would be happy to make anykind of money on it...Threw up a set of Fib lines on Yesterday close of 610 and today's low of 593.. 1st Fib line is at 597, with 599 and 601, 603, 606 and full retracement at 610 ... Current channel is 594 to 597.. Currently trading at the low end of the channel, trying to breakdwon... Low of the day is 593 even ... In looking at these price levels, I see this as a Nice 5 day hold... Am alittle worried about prices diving again, but with stocks as tight as they are and the HOPE that the future crop will be excellant... being Bullish is not a bad place to be...

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

May 8th

9:16 - Sorry all, been down and out with a bad back... yesterday was an interesting day even though I did not see it... Rumor of China buying old soybeans has drawn a line of support in the sand at 1460/1465. Tight stocks have pushed corn to 628 with a settle of 627. This is still within the trading range, but at the top... March 10 we have 2 reports coming out... Progress & S&D .. Progress will be good, but S&D will be tight... Not real sure how to play this, if I see a nice drop in corn prices, I may buy a call option, however beans are looking like a nice set up to go long calls as well...VP is giving us a +1 on the PNI, however the other indicators are not as strong... VP is giving a 0 on the PNI with other indicators agreeing with this... Both the short term and medium term has crossedover to the Darkside This contradicts my above trading idea... On another note, OJ has been taking a beating over the past 4 months, dropping 100 cents from its high of 220.. Normally, I would recommend to buy puts this time of year, and am still considering doing so, but with such a long hard drop, it is hard for me to recommend trying to catch this move now... Checking the weather, I expect very little Hurricane activity at the start of Hurricane Season as a La Nina is coming to an end and the transitition period between La Nina & El Nino will happen at the start of Hurricane season. I aniticipate a slow start with more hurricanes towards the end of the season... What does this mean... Well, it takes fear out of the trade and as such, we can look forward to lower lows... VP giving a 0 with some divergence in the Medium term ...Everything is looking like there is much more room for OJ to go lower... Delayed quote shows OJ down -1.65 at 118.15 with a low of 118.00. So today is another day I will be watching from the sidelines as I do not know what corn is gonna do, VP is telling me to buy puts on beans but I don't like it and OJ is also still sinking.... May The Force Be With You...

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

May 2nd

10:38 CN12 - Corn touched my Fib # in the overnigh at 624 and bounced back up to settle at 628, Implied Open is 629..VP is again giving me a +1 with a range of 625-635... Opened below 628 and looking towards 625 need a break of 624 4/8 to proceed downward... currently trading at 626

Tuesday, May 1, 2012

May 1st

10:20 CN12 - Implied open at 631 down from a couple minutes ago of 633, Holiday in China so no news regarding exports... today should be a down day... Expect to exit trade today with a small profit... looking for a 625 test, then 620... However, the Market could take advantage of China on Holiday and screw with the prices... Bad news is that Oil is WAY up onthe day, 105.34...which is linked to corn... Would like to see a stronger dollar as well, but right now its at 78.75, which is at it low for the year... gonna exit this trade today, no matter what...