Still Holding

Morning all, Stilling holding my Feb 9200 Wheat calls and I am still down... Checked the B/A  at 822 on the March contract and it was 3.5/4.1... this doesnt sound so bad until you look at the delta.. 11%... will need 15-20 cents to B/E...
Pulled some Fib lines today using 11/29 as the high and 801 as the low... 26.30% is at 824 2/8, with the next target at 837 4/8..
5 minutes before the pit opens and we are at 821 2/8... Need some love...

DIE ...

Well, the report came out and the wheat fell off a cliff... and Like an Idoit, I grabbed (10) calls at 825 for 3.7 ... Currently holding (20) Feb 9200 Calls DCA = 6.9 ... March Wheat is currently trading at 821 at 12:36 which is the LOD... Down 28 cents, Just let is stop already...Fuck... and during my writing it makes new lows 819 ... damn.... hope that time doesnt eat away my options, but as there is not much left to eat... one can only hope that the rally that will follow this terrible day, will bring my options back to life... Guess I should call this the Frankenstein Trade as currently, its dead...

Do or Die time on Wheat

Well, Grabbed another 3 calls today at or near the low... got (1) at 852 for 7.5 and then (2) at 847 for 6.5 the low of the day.  From there, Wheat rallied to 852, but of course crashed at the close to 848... Son of a Bitch !!!!  Did not check the value of my options at the close, well, because, frankly it doesnt matter... The report fun will begin tomorrow, I know that most traders are not looking for any adjustment and an actual decline in exports to bring the carryout higher, but this just doesnt make any sense to me.  The drought continues folks, subsoil moisture is non-existant and Wheat is the worst its been in 60 years... talk of wheat being blown from the ground and brown... considering that Dec is the worst time to trade commodities, means that I may have fucked up and probably should have taken my own advise and not traded until the new year.... instead I am holding (10) 9200 Feb Call Options with a DCA of 9.7, I was the last trade on those options at 6.5 at 847... it wouldnt take much to get me back into the money just as it would take much to make me wanna go grab a rope and find a tall tree... Until tomorrow when I report whether I have lost my ass or made some $$$... May the Force Be With You...

Holding Wheat Calls

Kinda terrible at updating the blog, but figured I would do anything besides homework... Currently have scaled into Wheat with (7) 920 Feb Call options... DCA= 10.9 cents.  Watched some RFD TV today and even though the wheat crop looks terrible, I am afraid that I might have entered this trade early expecting something to come from the Dec 11 reports... The Market opens in 3 hours and 7 minutes and I am both excited and dreading the open... Posted a few articles on the twitter acct which can be located at Masteryoda @pigsgetfed ... until then....

Weekly, shoulda started here

Wheat with Indicators Daily

Wheat TA

Wheat Continious Daily...

Wheat 11/18

Looking at developing a Wheat Trade this week, we have Thanksgiving this week, which makes for a short trading week, however we still have reports being release by the USDA...
11/19 @ 4:00 - Crop Progress
11/21 @ 4:00 - Wheat Data & Feed Grains Database
11/23 @ 8.30 - US Export Sales

Next Week we have:
11/26 @ 4:00 - Crop Progress
11/29 @ 8.30 - US Export Sales
11/30 @ 3:00 - Agricultural Prices

Corn 8/10

Welp, the report came out and for a second, corn reach up towards $8.49, only to retrace to 816.  Exited 830 call option for a loss of 10 cents, at 818 bought 2 more $9.00 called for 31 cents each.... holding 7 $9.00 Dec call options at an average price of 37 cents... at 824, $9.00 call are trading for 33 cents... Can accept a 28 cent loss, so will be holding for a little longer... would accept a 14 cent loss, unless we see some strength...however will probably hold from here...

Corn 8/9/12

Have scaled in with 4 Corn $9.00 Dec call option and 1 $8.30 Dec... Average entry at $8.24 on the Dec contract... Also Grabben 2 Bean $18.00 Oct Call options at 1588... Currently, Breaking even at 1:00 on the Corn trade and Doing well on the the Bean trade..
Had a strong open on the pit with a test of 829 just before 1:00 we had another test which was also rejected.. Support at $8.23 and Resistance at $8.29... Small Range ...  USDA Report out tomorrow morning and am VERY nervous heading in... Hoping for a close at the top this afternoon, with the Robots taking it higher overnight... May the Force be With You...

Corn 8/8/12

Been awhile since my last post as I have been busy trade corn... Took 1 call option yesterday at 797 and looking for a better entry heading into the report... Currently trading at 806... The plan is to scale in with 2 more options for a total investment of $7.5 k... Hoping to better my 830 call which I originally paid 48.7 cents... Still have tomorrow with the exports... and will definately buy 1 more, no matter the price, before the report... Mange risk, stay long...

Corn 7/8 Sunday night open

Last week I scaled in with purchasing an 800 Sept call for 19 cents at 708, as the price came down, I purchased 2 760 Sept calls for 25 cents each at 696, finally I grabbed a 740 Dec call for 40 cents at 688...
The open was a good one, but as I paid too much for the 800 and a touch much for the 740's, at 713 I am just above water... which, to be honest, I am happy to be...
The USDA will release thier next Progress report tomorrow at 4:00, so all we have to do is maintain value, or gain value, into todays close.  I expect terrible numbers out of Indiana, Missiouri, Kentucky and Illionios... Actually, I am looking for a Good to Excellant rating in the high 30's, which should provide a hell of a move upward...
I am skeptical about the S & D coming out on Wednesday and If we have a breakout tomorrow, I may consider scalling out with some profits...
Until tomorrow, hoping to stay above 710 on the Sept contract...

Corn Growth Stage ...

http://weedsoft.unl.edu/documents/growthstagesmodule/corn/corn.htm

Corn 6/27

Exited all positions last night at what turned out to be the low of the day... Pulled 100 cents out of the market and went to bed happy... wasted most of the day away feel super proud of myself for accepting profits thus allowing me to trade more since i know have alittle buffer... Reentered the market today grapped a Sept 660 call for 31 cents at 1:00 or so, then picked up another at 7:00 pm for 26.6 cents.  Current cost for both is 28.2 cents currently trading at 27 at 623...  Expecting to see a bounce off 620 but thats what I said at 630... Tomorrow is the Big USDA Stocks and Acreage reports... Trade expecting higher acreage and less stocks, however with the slow down in ethanol, I am worried about this current trade... I anticipate holding it over the weekend, unless it turns south, in which case, I will exit and try to reenter at a better price later... want to be long going into the weekend but may see some sell off.... will try to protect my investment by having a limit order ready to go if she takes a tumble... May The Force be with You...

Corn June 25th

Corn 6/25/12 - Been awhile since I update the blog, mainly expressing ideas and trade notices on Stocktwits... Currently I have scaled in to corn via Call options... Currently holding a 560 Sept Call and paid 20 cent entered on 6/12, a 600 Sept call paid 21 cents entered on 6/19 and a 630 Dec Call and paid 20 cents entered on 6/21. Total investment so far is $3,000, at 589 I am up almost 55 cents on the overall trade. Starting to look for an exit point, however with the Crop Progress report out this afternoon, after the grain market closes, tomorrow could be another limit up day. Last week's Progress report was at 63%, a report of 59% would be devastating. However, traders will be expecting to see a higher acreage reported on the upcoming USDA report to be released on the 29th... The trade is apparently expecting larger planted acres and with the spotty USDA throwing BS #'s around, it could imply even large harvest even though June is turning out to be the driest since 1988. Some farmers will have corn, those who can irrigate will be making some serious cash, but i do not believe that it will make up for nearly all of Indiana, MS parts of Nebraska and OH... tonight's report should show increased declines in the condition of corn in these states as well as all the others... a report below 59% good to excellent would push corn another limit up and we could easily see $6.20 corn this afternoon. Currently, weather will dictate the price... any mention of rain and these gains will disappear as the mentality will be the corn is saved... I also disagree, pollination is starting and the models all show dry and hot, from my research, no rain no pollination and that would imply a total loss in the southern states... that's crazy, but possible. Again, if the USDA report extremely large planting, this could sway the market into thinking that a little loss is made up by the increased acres... but with such tight stocks and what is now starting to look like a 150 yield... I foresee a shortage that will take the price of corn to the moon... I am not a doomsday sayer, but something has gotta give... Intend on holding options up to and maybe through the Friday report... May the Force be with You...

May 11th... Friday !!!!

11:28 - CN12 - Currently trading at 589 2/8, touched on 592 4/8, but didn't hold... USDA predicted a yield of 166 on top of HUGE planting with the anticipation of excess corn... anything along the way will hurt this, but we could have a perfect growing season, which would crush the price of corn as well as the farmers who put it in the ground... Got 43 days till expiration so on 6/22/12, corn needs to settle above 6.20 for me to be making money should I choose to hold the option that long... Currently need 595 or better for break even and anything above 600, obviously put me In The Money as well as up on profit... Bid 17.6, Ask 18.2, Last 17.7... Paid 19.0...

May 10th... Big Day

11:56 - USDA released #'s this morning...looks to be an exciting day... Opened down and I jumped in a got a 600 July Call option for 19 cents or $950.00 before fees...Got in at 10:50:32... To be completely honest, I was looking to Buy a Bean Call at the open, but had 2 order windows open and clicked buy on a corn call, I tried to cancel but am still not famaliar with the platform... I have checked the event log and it shows all kinds of action, 2 PendingSendCancel, 3 working, 1 FILL... So, in revising my outlook, now that I have a call, I actually think this is a pretty good position... 595 is my Break Even Point ... Do not have a plan for this trade and would be happy to make anykind of money on it...Threw up a set of Fib lines on Yesterday close of 610 and today's low of 593.. 1st Fib line is at 597, with 599 and 601, 603, 606 and full retracement at 610 ... Current channel is 594 to 597.. Currently trading at the low end of the channel, trying to breakdwon... Low of the day is 593 even ... In looking at these price levels, I see this as a Nice 5 day hold... Am alittle worried about prices diving again, but with stocks as tight as they are and the HOPE that the future crop will be excellant... being Bullish is not a bad place to be...

May 8th

9:16 - Sorry all, been down and out with a bad back... yesterday was an interesting day even though I did not see it... Rumor of China buying old soybeans has drawn a line of support in the sand at 1460/1465. Tight stocks have pushed corn to 628 with a settle of 627. This is still within the trading range, but at the top... March 10 we have 2 reports coming out... Progress & S&D .. Progress will be good, but S&D will be tight... Not real sure how to play this, if I see a nice drop in corn prices, I may buy a call option, however beans are looking like a nice set up to go long calls as well...VP is giving us a +1 on the PNI, however the other indicators are not as strong... VP is giving a 0 on the PNI with other indicators agreeing with this... Both the short term and medium term has crossedover to the Darkside This contradicts my above trading idea... On another note, OJ has been taking a beating over the past 4 months, dropping 100 cents from its high of 220.. Normally, I would recommend to buy puts this time of year, and am still considering doing so, but with such a long hard drop, it is hard for me to recommend trying to catch this move now... Checking the weather, I expect very little Hurricane activity at the start of Hurricane Season as a La Nina is coming to an end and the transitition period between La Nina & El Nino will happen at the start of Hurricane season. I aniticipate a slow start with more hurricanes towards the end of the season... What does this mean... Well, it takes fear out of the trade and as such, we can look forward to lower lows... VP giving a 0 with some divergence in the Medium term ...Everything is looking like there is much more room for OJ to go lower... Delayed quote shows OJ down -1.65 at 118.15 with a low of 118.00. So today is another day I will be watching from the sidelines as I do not know what corn is gonna do, VP is telling me to buy puts on beans but I don't like it and OJ is also still sinking.... May The Force Be With You...

May 2nd

10:38 CN12 - Corn touched my Fib # in the overnigh at 624 and bounced back up to settle at 628, Implied Open is 629..VP is again giving me a +1 with a range of 625-635... Opened below 628 and looking towards 625 need a break of 624 4/8 to proceed downward... currently trading at 626

May 1st

10:20 CN12 - Implied open at 631 down from a couple minutes ago of 633, Holiday in China so no news regarding exports... today should be a down day... Expect to exit trade today with a small profit... looking for a 625 test, then 620... However, the Market could take advantage of China on Holiday and screw with the prices... Bad news is that Oil is WAY up onthe day, 105.34...which is linked to corn... Would like to see a stronger dollar as well, but right now its at 78.75, which is at it low for the year... gonna exit this trade today, no matter what...

Corn 4/30

10:30 Corn opening at 627 on the July/June & Current month... expect to see a small run up at the open and possibly an entry position to purchase puts...

"That's No Moon ... That's a Trade Station..."

Thursday 4/26 CN12 10:13 Implied open is 601, Confirmation form VP 0, PSTD, PMTD, PLTD are all negative and growing... Range is 610 to 597, we could see a crash below 600 only to retrace back above 605... hard to tell... However, as we are still range trading... I may sit this week out...

Wednesday Corn 4/25

10:00 General Had a Mad Cow Disease Scare yesterday in Texas... had a limit down in Live Cattle... Beans are up 28 cents in the Overnight and corn is up 5 cents. June and July Corn is at 614.. VP is again giving me a +1 on the PNI with a range of 602-615... Not comfortable at this level... Will sit out and look for an OP...

Tuesday Corn

10:29 CN12 Implied open 617, VP giving me a +1 with a range of 606-620... Open at 618

1:19 CN12 a breakthrough 609.25 just happened and now looking for next target of 611.5... 609.25 was Fib of Fridays High/Low, No Position On...

11:08 CN12 trading at 608 with a morning bonce off 600 with the front month trading at 618, Considering buying a 6200 put, but expect to see further upward movement today now that the market is open...

USDA Link

I Cannot Teach Him, The Boy Has No Patience

Master Yoda