Tuesday, May 8, 2012

May 8th

9:16 - Sorry all, been down and out with a bad back... yesterday was an interesting day even though I did not see it... Rumor of China buying old soybeans has drawn a line of support in the sand at 1460/1465. Tight stocks have pushed corn to 628 with a settle of 627. This is still within the trading range, but at the top... March 10 we have 2 reports coming out... Progress & S&D .. Progress will be good, but S&D will be tight... Not real sure how to play this, if I see a nice drop in corn prices, I may buy a call option, however beans are looking like a nice set up to go long calls as well...VP is giving us a +1 on the PNI, however the other indicators are not as strong... VP is giving a 0 on the PNI with other indicators agreeing with this... Both the short term and medium term has crossedover to the Darkside This contradicts my above trading idea... On another note, OJ has been taking a beating over the past 4 months, dropping 100 cents from its high of 220.. Normally, I would recommend to buy puts this time of year, and am still considering doing so, but with such a long hard drop, it is hard for me to recommend trying to catch this move now... Checking the weather, I expect very little Hurricane activity at the start of Hurricane Season as a La Nina is coming to an end and the transitition period between La Nina & El Nino will happen at the start of Hurricane season. I aniticipate a slow start with more hurricanes towards the end of the season... What does this mean... Well, it takes fear out of the trade and as such, we can look forward to lower lows... VP giving a 0 with some divergence in the Medium term ...Everything is looking like there is much more room for OJ to go lower... Delayed quote shows OJ down -1.65 at 118.15 with a low of 118.00. So today is another day I will be watching from the sidelines as I do not know what corn is gonna do, VP is telling me to buy puts on beans but I don't like it and OJ is also still sinking.... May The Force Be With You...

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