Monday, June 25, 2012

Corn June 25th

Corn 6/25/12 - Been awhile since I update the blog, mainly expressing ideas and trade notices on Stocktwits... Currently I have scaled in to corn via Call options... Currently holding a 560 Sept Call and paid 20 cent entered on 6/12, a 600 Sept call paid 21 cents entered on 6/19 and a 630 Dec Call and paid 20 cents entered on 6/21. Total investment so far is $3,000, at 589 I am up almost 55 cents on the overall trade. Starting to look for an exit point, however with the Crop Progress report out this afternoon, after the grain market closes, tomorrow could be another limit up day. Last week's Progress report was at 63%, a report of 59% would be devastating. However, traders will be expecting to see a higher acreage reported on the upcoming USDA report to be released on the 29th... The trade is apparently expecting larger planted acres and with the spotty USDA throwing BS #'s around, it could imply even large harvest even though June is turning out to be the driest since 1988. Some farmers will have corn, those who can irrigate will be making some serious cash, but i do not believe that it will make up for nearly all of Indiana, MS parts of Nebraska and OH... tonight's report should show increased declines in the condition of corn in these states as well as all the others... a report below 59% good to excellent would push corn another limit up and we could easily see $6.20 corn this afternoon. Currently, weather will dictate the price... any mention of rain and these gains will disappear as the mentality will be the corn is saved... I also disagree, pollination is starting and the models all show dry and hot, from my research, no rain no pollination and that would imply a total loss in the southern states... that's crazy, but possible. Again, if the USDA report extremely large planting, this could sway the market into thinking that a little loss is made up by the increased acres... but with such tight stocks and what is now starting to look like a 150 yield... I foresee a shortage that will take the price of corn to the moon... I am not a doomsday sayer, but something has gotta give... Intend on holding options up to and maybe through the Friday report... May the Force be with You...


  1. MaterYoda, the font is hard to read but I like what your saying.

  2. Thanks for the feed back, hope this helps...