Tuesday, May 1, 2012

May 1st

10:20 CN12 - Implied open at 631 down from a couple minutes ago of 633, Holiday in China so no news regarding exports... today should be a down day... Expect to exit trade today with a small profit... looking for a 625 test, then 620... However, the Market could take advantage of China on Holiday and screw with the prices... Bad news is that Oil is WAY up onthe day, 105.34...which is linked to corn... Would like to see a stronger dollar as well, but right now its at 78.75, which is at it low for the year... gonna exit this trade today, no matter what...

4 comments:

  1. 10:43 CN12 - Slow start so far, VP has a +1 on the PNI, not good for me, and a range of 625-640... However, VP doesnt take into account China on Holiday, Super Progress on the planting to date and no buying... need to see that 625 mark.. otherwise, this trade is at risk...

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  2. 7:33 PM CN12 - Apparently, CME will be extending the overnight trading hours... not sure how this will affect our timing as of yet... Afterhours corn opened at 627 6/8, currently at 626 4/8.. make that 2/8... Not sure if I can trade Options in the overnight... currently, my options platform says that my 625 put is worth 15.2 Bid and 16.1 Ask... This is good for us...a 5 cent push in our direction looks to put us up and on track... Alittle worried about China waking up after the holiday and messing up the market, i do not think they are gonna make another purchase until the price retraces... need to keep a eye open, just when we think we can make a solid profit...ie prices have dropped, China may come back in a buyers... We will hope to take a nice profit and maintain Capital in case we get a frost... USDA Report came out yesterday and we have 53% corn in the ground with 13% sprouted... This is setting up for one of two senerios... Good weather with nice yeild and LOWER prices or Frost and All time high prices... This could be a very exciting year...We will need to track the weather, watch for Frost and Place our trades accordingly...

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  3. 7:52 - Alittle embarressed about my last post... just got off the phone with TS and you can trade options on corn Futures After Hours... I need to readjust my game plan and use this towards our advantage...Current option value is 15.4 - 16.4 I believe that liquidity will be an issue as I see No volume on any June Contracts... Current Corn Price 625 6/8...

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  4. 8:00 CN12 - My 1st Fib line is at 624 3/8 (23.6% of the run from 4/18), in addition Corn bounced off of our Fib line drawn from 4/3 to 4/18... So the current run up from 591 to 634 is a 61.80% from that last run down... now we are looking for 624 3/8 as our 1st retracement point with 618 then 613 (50%)... By changing my Strategy to purchasing closer to the money and not as many options, allowes us the luxury of Time...Well at least alittle...

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